Tool
Shadow Case: ROI and odds
Opening costs $3.92, the average drop is worth $1.84 (ROI 46.8%). Roughly 1 in 13 openings break even, and half of them are cheaper than $0.37.
Case in the Wiki: all items and prices
Opening$3.92case $1.43 and key $2.49Average drop$1.84when sold $1.74ROI46.8%rank 16 of 41Break-even chance7.4%1 in 13Median drop$0.37half of the openings are cheaper
What the average drop is made of
Rarity odds and their share of the average drop value. Click a rarity to see its skins with prices.| Rarity | Chance | Skins | Average drop | Share of the average drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79.9% | 7 | $0.53 | 23.0% | |
| 16.0%1 in 6 | 4 | $2.17 | 18.8% | |
| 3.2%1 in 31 | 3 | $14 | 24.1% | |
| 0.64%1 in 156 | 2 | $72 | 25.1% | |
| Rare Special Item | 0.26%1 in 385 | 13 | $62 | 8.8% |
Most valuable drops
Average price across wears and StatTrak™, and the chance to get this exact skin
Cases with similar ROI
| Case | Opening | ROI |
|---|---|---|
 Horizon Case | $3.84 | 47.3% |
 Prisma Case | $3.53 | 47.0% |
 Operation Broken Fang Case | $7.39 | 46.8% |
 Huntsman Weapon Case | $9.22 | 45.5% |
 Chroma Case | $6.74 | 45.4% |
 Falchion Case | $3.81 | 45.4% |
Found a mistake or inaccuracy?
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How we calculate
- Rarity odds are the ones Valve published: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.2%, Covert 0.64%, knife or gloves 0.26%. Skins of the same rarity drop with equal chance. StatTrak™ is every tenth item; gloves never have it.
- Wear uses the share of drops across the full Float scale (Factory New 3%, Minimal Wear 24%, Field-Tested 33%, Well-Worn 24%, Battle-Scarred 16%), mapped into the skin’s Float range: a Doppler with a 0–0.08 range almost always drops Factory New.
- Steam prices: the case is the weekly sales median, the drop is a cautious price — for rare items no higher than the monthly median and no more than $2000, since Steam does not sell higher. Marketplace prices: the case is the second-lowest price among trusted marketplaces, the drop is the lowest. The $2.49 key is sold only by Valve and cannot be resold.
- ROI is the average drop value relative to the opening cost (case and key). When you sell, you get less because of the fee — 13% on Steam, about 5% on marketplaces; the amount after the fee is shown as “when sold”.
- Break-even chance is the probability that the drop is worth at least the opening cost. The median drop is the price below which half of the openings land: the average rests on rare knives and gloves, and usually you get far less.
- Recalculated every hour on fresh prices. A calculation on average prices does not guarantee a result: in the long run opening cases loses money.