CS2 skin market analytics
week 40, September 28 – October 4The downturn is narrowing: Gloves have stabilized, but recovery hasn't begun
Caseway AICasewayOctober 4, 2026Gloves ended a nine-week slide and finished the week unchanged. At the same time, the share of liquid items that fell narrowed from 68.5% to 51.5%. We're seeing the first signs of divergence in a falling market: losses are no longer as widespread, but the overall index is still at a yearly low of 80.9 points after four straight down weeks.
That pause doesn't guarantee anything for an individual item. Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) fell from $2.96 to $1.70 on Steam, while third-party marketplaces showed a 44.2% drop. It had 126 sales over the week, below its usual level. The decline held beyond Steam without a spike in sales, so we separate improving market breadth from the condition of any single inventory.
What it means
- −0.7%KnivesKnives accounted for 27.1% of Steam's trading value, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous week. But their index has fallen for 10 straight weeks and closed at a yearly low of 49.7 points. Trading share doesn't show money flowing into the segment. Knives are taking a larger share of spending while prices keep falling, so the segment hasn't found price support.
- +143.8%UMP-45 | Continuum (Battle-Scarred)We see the 143.8% gain as a likely overreaction given a typical weekly fluctuation of 5.3% and a vol_rel of 1.1. Third-party marketplaces confirmed the move, showing a 175.8% gain. The Field-Tested version also rose on typical volume, with marketplaces confirming the move. The 85.7% jump in Sticker | nettik (Holo) | Cologne 2026 on just 8 sales looks like thin-market noise.
- −1.9%AgentsAgents hit a yearly low for the first time and now sit 53.7% below their yearly high, down 19.7% over 90 days. Pistols and rifles are still 15.6% and 19.5% above their yearly lows, respectively. When assessing an inventory, that gap between segments matters more than the general impression of a week with fewer falling items.
- −3.5%StickersSticker | FURIA (Gold) | Antwerp 2022 sold more often than usual, with 74 trades in a week and a vol_rel of 3.3. Sticker | FURIA (Foil) | Cologne 2026 saw increased activity alongside a confirmed 52.8% price gain, while the segment as a whole remains 68.3% below its yearly high. Some stickers are selling more often than usual, but the segment index has kept falling for a fourth straight week.
Scenarios for the week
- The pause stays localIf Gloves finish another week unchanged while the overall index keeps falling, the gap between segments will remain. By the next issue, signs of this scenario would include Gloves near 56.7 points, the overall index below 80.9, and more than half of liquid items still falling.
- The pause spreadsIf Gloves move from a flat week to gains by the ESL Pro League Season 24 final on October 11, and the share of falling liquid items drops below half, the improvement will have spread beyond one segment. The scenario would be confirmed by Gloves above 56.7 points, the overall index above 80.9, and the losing streak broken.
- Knives hit a new lowIf knives fall for an 11th straight week while keeping an elevated share of trading value, a larger share of spending will once again go hand in hand with lower prices. Check next week: the knife index below 49.7 points and its trading share at or above the current 27.1%.
Scenarios are reasoning based on the week’s data, not financial advice.
The market now
data as of October 13, 2026Today on the market
data as of October 12Daily figures use the daily prices of index positions for the last full day. Signals follow the rules: a streak of days in one direction from 0.1%, a move of 1.5% or more in a day, market events.
Indices
over 7 days; tap a segment to add it to the chartWhy the market is moving
events and where the money is goingEvents and their effect
over 3 months- Counter-Strike 2 Update−1.7%Overall index
- Support for Applying Stickers to C4Valve added the ability to apply stickers to the C4 explosive. This new customization option creates an additional sink for stickers and stimulates market demand.−2.3%Stickers
- Cologne 2026 Ranked Series stickers releasedValve has introduced the Cologne 2026 Ranked Series stickers reflecting team placements at a reduced price point. The Cologne 2026 Shop will remain open until September 29th.−3.3%Stickers
Effect is the change in the segment index in the week after the event versus the week before. Sources are Valve news and game files.
Where the money is going
share of turnover this week- Rifles34.5%−0.1 pp
- Knives27.4%+1.1 pp
- Pistols13.7%−0.4 pp
- Other9.6%−1.0 pp
- Gloves8.0%+0.2 pp
- Agents3.7%+0.3 pp
- Stickers3.1%0.0 pp
A sell-off in «Knives»: +1.1 pp of turnover share with falling prices. «Other» is losing turnover share (−1.0 pp).
Moves of the week
price gains this week among liquid items (from $1 and 5 sales a day): more than twice the item’s usual swing
| Item | Price | 7d | Marketplaces | Typical | Sales | Vs average | Spread | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sticker | World Eaters 1Stickers | $17 | +8023.8% | +2738.1% | ±18.0% | 427 | ×2.4 | 67% | Counter-Strike 2 Update |
 Sticker | ryu | Cologne 2026Stickers | $1.94 | +1041.2% | +2550.0% | ±44.1% | 5.7K | ×3.2 | 27% | Counter-Strike 2 Update |
 Sticker | ryu (Foil) | Cologne 2026Stickers | $2.80 | +582.9% | +577.1% | ±20.7% | 387 | ×3.2 | 41% | Counter-Strike 2 Update |
 Sticker | ryu (Foil, Ranked) | Cologne 2026Stickers | $1.57 | +313.2% | +760.0% | ±56.0% | 785 | ×2.7 | 36% | Counter-Strike 2 Update |
 Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Factory New) | $3.19 | +58.5% | −0.9% | ±12.4% | 102 | ×0.9 | 56% | Counter-Strike 2 Update |
 Sticker | Into The Breach (Gold) | Paris 2023Stickers | $1.51 | +46.6% | +5.1% | ±7.5% | 113 | ×1.4 | 54% | Counter-Strike 2 Update |
 Sticker | Thousand Sons 1Stickers | $1.80 | +46.3% | −0.9% | ±13.5% | 56 | ×1.2 | 42% | Counter-Strike 2 Update |
 Sticker | T Rush (Holo)Stickers | $1.99 | +26.3% | +9.4% | ±9.3% | 49 | ×0.9 | 43% | Counter-Strike 2 Update |
“Marketplaces” is the change in the average price on trusted marketplaces over the same week: the same direction means the move is confirmed. “Typical” is the item’s usual weekly price swing over two months. “Vs average” is Steam sales this week against the month’s average week. Spread is how much the Steam price is above the cheapest trusted marketplace. Reason is a market event in the same segment within two weeks.
Review archive
All issuesThe issue is put together automatically from marketplace data and market events with the help of AI; the editors review it before publishing. This is not financial advice.