Contracts of the weekissue 2, October 6, 2026

Profitable CS2 trade-ups

10 profitable contracts this week

We checked 108,220 contract options from 89 collections at current prices. The issue holds the ten most profitable contracts at marketplace prices: after their fee they return more than the input on average, give an outcome worth more than the input in at least 40% of cases, and the outcomes sell quickly. Below are all profitable contracts available right now.

Contracts10of 108,220 combinationsBest profit+$2.27per contractAverage ROI+12%across the issueInput from$1.46cheapest contract

Marketplace quotes for 3 daysMarketplace fee of 5% deductedNext issue October 12, 2026

10 contracts in the issue

ClassifiedCovertrisky

Dreams & Nightmares and Fracture: a contract for Covert, on average +5%

Why nowInput MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) fell 5% over the week. Worth more than the whole input after the fee: Desert Eagle | Printstream (Well-Worn), MP9 | Starlight Protector (Well-Worn) and AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) — 80% chance in total.

Input$4510 skinsProfit (EV)+$2.27ROI +5%Chance of profit80%outcomes above the input

What to buy	Wear and Float	Qty	Total
ST™MP7 \| Abyssal ApparitionDreams & Nightmares	WWFloat 0.38–0.45Listings	× 4	$19
ST™MP7 \| Abyssal ApparitionDreams & Nightmares	FTFloat 0.15–0.38Listings	× 2	$9.88
ST™XM1014 \| EntombedFracture	FTFloat 0.15–0.38Listings	× 4	$16

What you get	Chance	Wear and Float	Profit	Sales per week
ST™AK-47 \| NightwishDreams & Nightmares	30.0%	BSFloat up to 0.5599	+$3.83	56
ST™MP9 \| Starlight ProtectorDreams & Nightmares	30.0%	WWFloat up to 0.4479	+$3.97	17not every day
ST™AK-47 \| Legion of AnubisFracture	20.0%	WWFloat up to 0.3919	−$15	8not every day
ST™Desert Eagle \| PrintstreamFracture	20.0%	WWFloat up to 0.4479	+$15	6rarely

Outcomes — from 6 sales a week, 30% of the chance is on frequently sold outcomes. Items bought on a marketplace are trade protected for 7 days: into a contract only after thatOpen in the calculator

ClassifiedCovertcalm

Recoil: a contract for Covert, on average +5%

Why nowUSP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn) rose 6% over the week. Worth more than the whole input after the fee: USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn) — 50% chance in total.

Input$3710 skinsProfit (EV)+$1.70ROI +5%Chance of profit50%outcomes above the input

What to buy	Wear and Float	Qty	Price	Total
ST™P250 \| VisionsRecoil	BSFloat 0.45–0.5125Listings	× 2	$3.33LIS-SKINS	$6.66
ST™Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥LoveRecoil	WWFloat 0.38–0.45Listings	× 8		$30

What you get	Chance	Wear and Float	Price	Profit	Sales per week
ST™AWP \| Chromatic AberrationRecoil	50.0%	FTFloat up to 0.3544		−$18	301
ST™USP-S \| PrintstreamRecoil	50.0%	WWFloat up to 0.4304		+$21	9not every day

Outcomes — from 9 sales a week, 50% of the chance is on frequently sold outcomes. Items bought on a marketplace are trade protected for 7 days: into a contract only after thatOpen in the calculator

RestrictedClassifiedrisky

Fracture and Spectrum: a contract for Classified, on average +9%

Why nowInput Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested) fell 10% over the week. Worth more than the whole input after the fee: M4A1-S | Decimator (Well-Worn) and AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) — 60% chance in total.

Input$1710 skinsProfit (EV)+$1.51ROI +9%Chance of profit60%outcomes above the input

What to buy	Wear and Float	Qty	Total
ST™Tec-9 \| BrotherFracture	FTFloat 0.15–0.38Listings	× 1	$0.46
ST™MAC-10 \| Last DiveSpectrum	FTFloat 0.15–0.38Listings	× 4	$7.40
ST™UMP-45 \| ScaffoldSpectrum	FTFloat 0.15–0.38Listings	× 5	$9.45

What you get	Chance	Wear and Float	Profit	Sales per week
ST™AWP \| Fever DreamSpectrum	30.0%	FTFloat up to 0.2861	+$0.23	125
ST™CZ75-Auto \| XiangliuSpectrum	30.0%	FTFloat up to 0.2913	−$0.76	20not every day
ST™M4A1-S \| DecimatorSpectrum	30.0%	WWFloat up to 0.4421	+$9.63	5rarely
ST™Glock-18 \| VogueFracture	3.33%	WWFloat up to 0.3901	−$11	61

Outcomes — from 5 sales a week, 40% of the chance is on frequently sold outcomes. Items bought on a marketplace are trade protected for 7 days: into a contract only after thatOpen in the calculator

ClassifiedCovertcalm

Gallery: a contract for Covert, on average +3%

Why nowInput UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) fell 10% over the week. Worth more than the whole input after the fee: M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Field-Tested) — 50% chance in total.

Input$3210 skinsProfit (EV)+$1.09ROI +3%Chance of profit50%outcomes above the input

What to buy	Wear and Float	Qty	Price	Total
UMP-45 \| Neo-NoirGallery	BSFloat 0.45–1.00Listings	× 3		$9.42
UMP-45 \| Neo-NoirGallery	WWFloat 0.38–0.45Listings	× 7		$22

What you get	Chance	Wear and Float	Price	Profit	Sales per week
Glock-18 \| Gold ToofGallery	50.0%	WWFloat up to 0.4489		−$7.52	15not every day
M4A1-S \| VaporwaveGallery	50.0%	FTFloat up to 0.3671		+$9.69	179

Outcomes — from 15 sales a week, 50% of the chance is on frequently sold outcomes. Items bought on a marketplace are trade protected for 7 days: into a contract only after thatOpen in the calculator

All profitable right now

Loading contracts

How we pick

Every 6 hours we recalculate contracts at current prices: for every rarity, normal and StatTrak™, from one collection or two in any split (for example, 7 + 3). Since 22 May 2026 you can also put Souvenir skins into the input — together with normal ones, and the result is normal.
For each contract we look for the cheapest input that gets the outcome in the wear it needs. A skin’s input price is the 7-day sales median of its wear, and we take the worst Float in that wear: any skin of that wear you buy will do.
A contract makes the list if, after the fee (Steam 13%, marketplaces 5%), it returns on average at least 3% more than the input and gives an outcome worth more than the input in at least 30% of cases. We trust an outcome price if it had at least five sales in a week; a skin goes into the input if it has at least five Steam sales or five marketplace listings.
The weekly issue is the ten most profitable contracts, separately at marketplace prices and at Steam prices. The chance of profit is at least 40%, at least 30% of the chance falls on outcomes with 30+ sales a week, and each rarity gets no more than three contracts from different collections. “Why now” is built from price changes over the week, with no AI text.
Marketplace prices: the input is the second-lowest price among trusted marketplaces over 3 days (the cheapest listing is often the only one), the outcome is the lowest price; the icon next to a price shows the marketplace. If an outcome needs a low Float, we price the input by real listings with that Float on LIS-SKINS and CSGO.com when there are at least ten of them — the card shows that input second if it is more profitable. A contract that makes less than 3% at marketplace prices is marked “Steam prices only”.
Profit (EV) is what a contract makes on average: the chances of the outcomes multiplied by their prices after the fee, minus the input. ROI is profit relative to the input, and the chance of profit is the probability of getting an outcome worth more than the input. We mark a contract as risky if the chance of profit is below 50%, if outcomes with 30+ sales a week make up less than half of the chance, if an expensive outcome rose 30% or more in a week, or if the average revenue is double the input — that happens when a rare outcome’s price rests on a couple of sales.
The calculation is based on median prices and guarantees nothing. Before trading, open the contract in the calculator and check the Float of the items you bought.