Is Operation Phoenix Weapon Case worth opening?

On average, no: ROI 47.0%, about $0.47 comes back per dollar. Roughly 1 in 21 openings pays off, half of openings are worth less than $0.40.

What is the most expensive drop in Operation Phoenix Weapon Case?

Karambit | Fade: $1,559 on average across wears and StatTrak™, drop chance 1 in 25,000.

What are the drop odds in Operation Phoenix Weapon Case?

Mil-Spec — 79.9%, Restricted — 16.0%, Classified — 3.2%, Covert — 0.64%, Rare Special — 0.26%.

How much does it cost to open Operation Phoenix Weapon Case?

Case $3.03 and key $2.49, $5.52 in total.

Tool

Operation Phoenix Weapon Case: ROI and odds

Opening costs $5.52, the average drop is worth $2.60 (ROI 47.0%). Roughly 1 in 21 openings break even, and half of them are cheaper than $0.40.

Case in the Wiki: all items and prices

Opening$5.52case $3.03 and key $2.49Average drop$2.60when sold $2.47ROI47.0%rank 16 of 41Break-even chance4.7%1 in 21Median drop$0.40half of the openings are cheaper

What the average drop is made of

Rarity odds and their share of the average drop value. Click a rarity to see its skins with prices.

Rarity	Chance	Skins	Average drop	Share of the average drop
	79.9%	4	$0.43	13.2%
	16.0%1 in 6	4	$2.76	17.0%
	3.2%1 in 31	3	$17	21.5%
	0.64%1 in 156	2	$78	19.2%
Rare Special	0.26%1 in 385	65	$290	29.0%

Most valuable drops

Average price across wears and StatTrak™, and the chance to get this exact skin

KarambitFade

Rare Special

$1,559

1 in 25,000

KarambitSlaughter

Rare Special

$908

1 in 25,000

KarambitVanilla

Rare Special

$900

1 in 25,000

M9 BayonetFade

Rare Special

$817

1 in 25,000

KarambitCase Hardened

Rare Special

$731

1 in 25,000

KarambitBlue Steel

Rare Special

$690

1 in 25,000

M9 BayonetSlaughter

Rare Special

$661

1 in 25,000

KarambitCrimson Web

Rare Special

$643

1 in 25,000

Cases with similar ROI

Case	Opening	ROI
Prisma Case	$3.49	47.6%
Shadow Case	$3.87	47.3%
Horizon Case	$3.85	47.0%
Huntsman Weapon Case	$9.13	45.8%
Chroma Case	$6.77	45.3%
Falchion Case	$3.83	45.1%

All cases

Found a mistake or inaccuracy?

FAQ

How we calculate

Rarity odds are the ones Valve published: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.2%, Covert 0.64%, knife or gloves 0.26%. Skins of the same rarity drop with equal chance. StatTrak™ is every tenth item; gloves never have it.
Wear uses the share of drops across the full Float scale (Factory New 3%, Minimal Wear 24%, Field-Tested 33%, Well-Worn 24%, Battle-Scarred 16%), mapped into the skin’s Float range: a Doppler with a 0–0.08 range almost always drops Factory New.
Steam prices: the case is the weekly sales median, the drop is a cautious price — for rare items no higher than the monthly median and no more than $2000, since Steam does not sell higher. Marketplace prices: the case is the second-lowest price among trusted marketplaces, the drop is the lowest. The $2.49 key is sold only by Valve and cannot be resold.
ROI is the average drop value relative to the opening cost (case and key). When you sell, you get less because of the fee — 13% on Steam, about 5% on marketplaces; the amount after the fee is shown as “when sold”.
Break-even chance is the probability that the drop is worth at least the opening cost. The median drop is the price below which half of the openings land: the average rests on rare knives and gloves, and usually you get far less.
Recalculated every hour on fresh prices. A calculation on average prices does not guarantee a result: in the long run opening cases loses money.