Tool
Recoil Case: ROI and odds
Opening costs $2.68, the average drop is worth $0.83 (ROI 30.9%). Roughly 1 in 25 openings break even, and half of them are cheaper than $0.06.
Case in the Wiki: all items and prices
Opening$2.68case $0.19 and key $2.49Average drop$0.83when sold $0.79ROI30.9%rank 34 of 41Break-even chance4.0%1 in 25Median drop$0.06half of the openings are cheaper
What the average drop is made of
Rarity odds and their share of the average drop value. Click a rarity to see its skins with prices.| Rarity | Chance | Skins | Average drop | Share of the average drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79.9% | 7 | $0.09 | 8.4% | |
| 16.0%1 in 6 | 5 | $0.47 | 9.2% | |
| 3.2%1 in 31 | 3 | $4.26 | 16.4% | |
| 0.64%1 in 156 | 2 | $36 | 27.7% | |
| Rare Special Item | 0.26%1 in 385 | 24 | $122 | 38.2% |
Most valuable drops
Average price across wears and StatTrak™, and the chance to get this exact skin
Cases with similar ROI
| Case | Opening | ROI |
|---|---|---|
 CS20 Case | $3.21 | 38.1% |
 Dreams & Nightmares Case | $3.39 | 34.8% |
 Fever Case | $3.05 | 31.6% |
 Clutch Case | $2.85 | 29.5% |
 CS:GO Weapon Case | $100 | 29.3% |
 Operation Bravo Case | $52 | 27.9% |
Found a mistake or inaccuracy?
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How we calculate
- Rarity odds are the ones Valve published: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.2%, Covert 0.64%, knife or gloves 0.26%. Skins of the same rarity drop with equal chance. StatTrak™ is every tenth item; gloves never have it.
- Wear uses the share of drops across the full Float scale (Factory New 3%, Minimal Wear 24%, Field-Tested 33%, Well-Worn 24%, Battle-Scarred 16%), mapped into the skin’s Float range: a Doppler with a 0–0.08 range almost always drops Factory New.
- Steam prices: the case is the weekly sales median, the drop is a cautious price — for rare items no higher than the monthly median and no more than $2000, since Steam does not sell higher. Marketplace prices: the case is the second-lowest price among trusted marketplaces, the drop is the lowest. The $2.49 key is sold only by Valve and cannot be resold.
- ROI is the average drop value relative to the opening cost (case and key). When you sell, you get less because of the fee — 13% on Steam, about 5% on marketplaces; the amount after the fee is shown as “when sold”.
- Break-even chance is the probability that the drop is worth at least the opening cost. The median drop is the price below which half of the openings land: the average rests on rare knives and gloves, and usually you get far less.
- Recalculated every hour on fresh prices. A calculation on average prices does not guarantee a result: in the long run opening cases loses money.