Tool
Fever Case: ROI and odds
Opening costs $3.05, the average drop is worth $0.98 (ROI 32.1%). Roughly 1 in 24 openings break even, and half of them are cheaper than $0.09.
Case in the Wiki: all items and prices
Opening$3.05case $0.56 and key $2.49Average drop$0.98when sold $0.93ROI32.1%rank 33 of 41Break-even chance4.2%1 in 24Median drop$0.09half of the openings are cheaper
What the average drop is made of
Rarity odds and their share of the average drop value. Click a rarity to see its skins with prices.| Rarity | Chance | Skins | Average drop | Share of the average drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79.9% | 7 | $0.11 | 9.1% | |
| 16.0%1 in 6 | 5 | $0.58 | 9.4% | |
| 3.2%1 in 31 | 3 | $4.76 | 15.5% | |
| 0.64%1 in 156 | 2 | $43 | 28.1% | |
| Rare Special Item | 0.26%1 in 385 | 28 | $142 | 37.8% |
Most valuable drops
Average price across wears and StatTrak™, and the chance to get this exact skin
Cases with similar ROI
| Case | Opening | ROI |
|---|---|---|
 Danger Zone Case | $3.43 | 38.5% |
 CS20 Case | $3.23 | 38.3% |
 Dreams & Nightmares Case | $3.41 | 36.4% |
 Recoil Case | $2.69 | 31.2% |
 Clutch Case | $2.88 | 29.9% |
 CS:GO Weapon Case | $102 | 28.9% |
Found a mistake or inaccuracy?
FAQ
How we calculate
- Rarity odds are the ones Valve published: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.2%, Covert 0.64%, knife or gloves 0.26%. Skins of the same rarity drop with equal chance. StatTrak™ is every tenth item; gloves never have it.
- Wear uses the share of drops across the full Float scale (Factory New 3%, Minimal Wear 24%, Field-Tested 33%, Well-Worn 24%, Battle-Scarred 16%), mapped into the skin’s Float range: a Doppler with a 0–0.08 range almost always drops Factory New.
- Steam prices: the case is the weekly sales median, the drop is a cautious price — for rare items no higher than the monthly median and no more than $2000, since Steam does not sell higher. Marketplace prices: the case is the second-lowest price among trusted marketplaces, the drop is the lowest. The $2.49 key is sold only by Valve and cannot be resold.
- ROI is the average drop value relative to the opening cost (case and key). When you sell, you get less because of the fee — 13% on Steam, about 5% on marketplaces; the amount after the fee is shown as “when sold”.
- Break-even chance is the probability that the drop is worth at least the opening cost. The median drop is the price below which half of the openings land: the average rests on rare knives and gloves, and usually you get far less.
- Recalculated every hour on fresh prices. A calculation on average prices does not guarantee a result: in the long run opening cases loses money.