CS2 skin market analytics
week 41, October 5 – 11Gloves Lose Their Footing as the Market Has Its Worst Week in 3 Months
Caseway AICasewayOctober 14, 2026After a flat week, Gloves fell 5.6% and hit a yearly low for the first time. The earlier signs of stabilization are gone. The share of declining liquid items jumped from 51.5% to 82.3%, while the overall index lost 6.1%, its worst weekly result in 12 weeks. We’re seeing a broader downturn pick up speed, with the market now down for 5 straight weeks.
Isolated sticker spikes came alongside falling weapon prices. USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) dropped from $5.55 to $3.85 on Steam despite near-normal sales, and third-party marketplaces showed a decline too. Its 30.6% drop is well above its usual weekly swing of 14.1%. Trading backs up this move, while the week’s biggest percentage gains need to be checked item by item.
What it means
- −5.2%KnivesKnives accounted for 27.4% of Steam trading volume by value, up 1.3 percentage points, but prices fell 5.2% to a yearly low. That large share of spending comes alongside an 11th straight week of losses and a 41.3% drop from the yearly high. Sales can also spike as prices fall: Sticker | BIG (Holo) | Katowice 2019 sold 64 times, more than usual, while its Steam price dropped 32.1%.
- +11070.0%Sticker | World Eaters 1The rise in Sticker | World Eaters 1 is backed by 412 sales and higher volume, but the scale varies sharply: 11,070.0% on Steam versus 2,778.6% on third-party marketplaces. Confirmation across marketplaces points to the same direction, not the same size of increase. There’s also a clear outlier: XM1014 | Blue Tire (Well-Worn) rose 272.6% on Steam on just 15 sales.
- Huntsman Weapon CaseThe cost to open Huntsman Weapon Case fell 12.2% to $8.67, lifting estimated ROI by 4.7 percentage points to 48.4%. Opening Operation Riptide Case got 6.6% cheaper, down to $9.52, while ROI rose 1.4 percentage points to 42.3%. Opening cases makes more sense now, but the average value of the drops still covers less than half the cost for both cases.
Scenarios for the week
- The Downturn Stays BroadIf the overall index’s losing streak reaches 6 weeks and more than 80% of liquid items are still falling, this week’s acceleration will give way to a broader downturn. By the next report, we’ll check whether the overall index is below 74.7 points and the decline remains this widespread.
- The Pause ReturnsIf Gloves rise again during the week of Thunderpick World Championship 2026, running October 14–18, and the market’s 5-week losing streak ends, stabilization will have spread beyond a single segment. Signs to watch: Gloves above 53.6 points, the overall index above 74.7, and fewer than half of liquid items falling.
- High Turnover Accompanies New LowsIf knives fall for a 12th straight week while holding at least 27.4% of trading volume, a large share of spending will once again come alongside lower prices. The scenario is confirmed if the knife index falls below 47.2 points and their current share of trading volume holds or grows.
Scenarios are reasoning based on the week’s data, not financial advice.
The market now
data as of October 16, 2026Today on the market
data as of October 15Daily figures use the daily prices of index positions for the last full day. Signals follow the rules: a streak of days in one direction from 0.1%, a move of 1.5% or more in a day, market events.
Indices
over 7 days; tap a segment to add it to the chart- Market index −13.6%
- Gloves−10.5%ahead by 3.1 pp
Why the market is moving
events and where the money is goingEvents and their effect
over 3 months- Counter-Strike 2 Updateeffect being calculated
- Counter-Strike 2 Update−1.7%Overall index
- Support for Applying Stickers to C4Valve added the ability to apply stickers to the C4 explosive. This new customization option creates an additional sink for stickers and stimulates market demand.−2.3%Stickers
- Cologne 2026 Ranked Series stickers releasedValve has introduced the Cologne 2026 Ranked Series stickers reflecting team placements at a reduced price point. The Cologne 2026 Shop will remain open until September 29th.−4.4%Stickers
Effect is the change in the segment index in the week after the event versus the week before. Sources are Valve news and game files.
Where the money is going
share of turnover this week- Rifles33.7%−1.0 pp
- Knives27.6%+1.3 pp
- Pistols13.6%−0.6 pp
- Other10.0%−0.4 pp
- Gloves8.2%+0.3 pp
- Agents3.7%+0.2 pp
- Stickers3.2%+0.1 pp
A sell-off in «Knives»: +1.3 pp of turnover share with falling prices. «Rifles» is losing turnover share (−1.0 pp).
Moves of the week
price gains this week among liquid items (from $1 and 5 sales a day): more than twice the item’s usual swing
| Item | Price | 7d | Marketplaces | Typical | Sales | Vs average | Spread | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sticker | Please Be PatientStickers | $1.23 | +223.7% | +149.2% | ±26.9% | 4.8K | ×2.2 | 28% | Counter-Strike 2 Update |
 Sticker | dexter | Shanghai 2024Stickers | $1.23 | +16.0% | +6.2% | ±7.6% | 346 | ×1.2 | 41% | Counter-Strike 2 Update |
 StatTrak™ XM1014 | Mockingbird (Factory New) | $1.80 | +15.8% | 0.0% | ±5.1% | 80 | ×0.9 | 44% | Counter-Strike 2 Update |
 Sticker | Tamara (Holo)Stickers | $3.34 | +14.8% | +0.7% | ±6.8% | 110 | ×1.0 | 37% | Counter-Strike 2 Update |
 P2000 | Pulse (Field-Tested)Pistols | $1.32 | +13.8% | +9.3% | ±5.2% | 88 | ×1.5 | 31% | Counter-Strike 2 Update |
 M249 | Nebula Crusader (Well-Worn) | $1.40 | +12.9% | +1.0% | ±5.8% | 46 | ×1.1 | 36% | Counter-Strike 2 Update |
 StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Minimal Wear)Pistols | $1.36 | +11.5% | +5.8% | ±5.3% | 83 | ×0.8 | 26% | Counter-Strike 2 Update |
 USP-S | Blueprint (Battle-Scarred)Pistols | $3.97 | +10.4% | +15.3% | ±5.1% | 141 | ×1.4 | 28% | Counter-Strike 2 Update |
“Marketplaces” is the change in the average price on trusted marketplaces over the same week: the same direction means the move is confirmed. “Typical” is the item’s usual weekly price swing over two months. “Vs average” is Steam sales this week against the month’s average week. Spread is how much the Steam price is above the cheapest trusted marketplace. Reason is a market event in the same segment within two weeks.
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All issuesThe issue is put together automatically from marketplace data and market events with the help of AI; the editors review it before publishing. This is not financial advice.