Weekly reviewCS2week 40, September 28 – October 4

The downturn is narrowing: Gloves have stabilized, but recovery hasn't begun

Caseway AICasewayOctober 4, 2026

Gloves ended a nine-week slide and finished the week unchanged. At the same time, the share of liquid items that fell narrowed from 68.5% to 51.5%. We're seeing the first signs of divergence in a falling market: losses are no longer as widespread, but the overall index is still at a yearly low of 80.9 points after four straight down weeks.

That pause doesn't guarantee anything for an individual item. Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) fell from $2.96 to $1.70 on Steam, while third-party marketplaces showed a 44.2% drop. It had 126 sales over the week, below its usual level. The decline held beyond Steam without a spike in sales, so we separate improving market breadth from the condition of any single inventory.

What it means

−0.7%KnivesKnives accounted for 27.1% of Steam's trading value, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous week. But their index has fallen for 10 straight weeks and closed at a yearly low of 49.7 points. Trading share doesn't show money flowing into the segment. Knives are taking a larger share of spending while prices keep falling, so the segment hasn't found price support.
+143.8%UMP-45 | Continuum (Battle-Scarred)We see the 143.8% gain as a likely overreaction given a typical weekly fluctuation of 5.3% and a vol_rel of 1.1. Third-party marketplaces confirmed the move, showing a 175.8% gain. The Field-Tested version also rose on typical volume, with marketplaces confirming the move. The 85.7% jump in Sticker | nettik (Holo) | Cologne 2026 on just 8 sales looks like thin-market noise.
−1.9%AgentsAgents hit a yearly low for the first time and now sit 53.7% below their yearly high, down 19.7% over 90 days. Pistols and rifles are still 15.6% and 19.5% above their yearly lows, respectively. When assessing an inventory, that gap between segments matters more than the general impression of a week with fewer falling items.
−3.5%StickersSticker | FURIA (Gold) | Antwerp 2022 sold more often than usual, with 74 trades in a week and a vol_rel of 3.3. Sticker | FURIA (Foil) | Cologne 2026 saw increased activity alongside a confirmed 52.8% price gain, while the segment as a whole remains 68.3% below its yearly high. Some stickers are selling more often than usual, but the segment index has kept falling for a fourth straight week.

Scenarios for the week

How last week’s scenarios played outThe scenario of local demand for stickers played out, but gains didn't spread across the segment. Sticker | FURIA (Foil) | Cologne 2026 rose 52.8%, while the sticker index fell 3.5% and stayed at a yearly low. Knife sales also continued as expected: their share of trading value rose 1.1 percentage points, while the index dropped 0.7% to a new yearly low.

The pause stays localIf Gloves finish another week unchanged while the overall index keeps falling, the gap between segments will remain. By the next issue, signs of this scenario would include Gloves near 56.7 points, the overall index below 80.9, and more than half of liquid items still falling.
The pause spreadsIf Gloves move from a flat week to gains by the ESL Pro League Season 24 final on October 11, and the share of falling liquid items drops below half, the improvement will have spread beyond one segment. The scenario would be confirmed by Gloves above 56.7 points, the overall index above 80.9, and the losing streak broken.
Knives hit a new lowIf knives fall for an 11th straight week while keeping an elevated share of trading value, a larger share of spending will once again go hand in hand with lower prices. Check next week: the knife index below 49.7 points and its trading share at or above the current 27.1%.

Scenarios are reasoning based on the week’s data, not financial advice.

The week in numbers

September 28 – October 4

Market index80.9−1.1% this weekSteam turnover this week$16.0MSeptember 28 – October 4

Indices

over 7 days; tap a segment to add it to the chart

Market price index72.1−13.3%631K sales this week

Review archive

All issues

Week 41October 5 – 11Gloves Lose Their Footing as the Market Has Its Worst Week in 3 MonthsAfter a flat week, Gloves fell 5.6% and hit a yearly low for the first time. The earlier signs of stabilization are gone. The share of declining liquid items jumped from 51.5% to 82.3%, while the overall index lost 6.1%, its worst weekly result in 12 weeks. We’re seeing a broader downturn pick up speed, with the market now down for 5 straight weeks.Index−6.1%Turnover$16.7MCounter-Strike 2 Update Week 39September 21 – 27C4 Sticker Slot Fuels Gains for Individual Stickers as the Market Hits a 1-Year LowThe overall index fell by 3.4% to 80.1 points, its lowest level in a year. This week, Valve enabled stickers on the C4, giving players a new way to use them and driving sharp price gains for some stickers on Steam. But the events of the week do not explain the broader decline.Index−3.4%Turnover$15.7MSupport for Applying Stickers to C4

The issue is put together automatically from marketplace data and market events with the help of AI; the editors review it before publishing. This is not financial advice.