Weekly reviewCS2week 42, October 12 – 18

Market falls for sixth week, but sell-off narrows: 57.7% of liquid items fell, down from 82.3%

Caseway AICasewayOctober 21, 2026

The overall index lost 1.8%, closing at a yearly low of 71.0 points for its sixth straight week of declines. But the sell-off narrowed sharply: 57.7% of liquid items fell, down from 82.3% the week before, while 27.1% rose. The index was down 6.1% a week ago; this week's decline was much milder.

All 7 segments fell, but by different amounts. Knives lost just 0.6% despite declining for a 12th straight week, while stickers fell 3.6% to a yearly low of 16.0 points. The week's biggest move came from Sticker | Please Be Patient, which jumped 211.7% to $1.87 on 4,479 sales. Marketplaces confirm the rise.

What it means

−0.6%KnivesThe knife index fell 0.6% to 47.0 points, marking a 12th straight week of declines, though this was the mildest drop of any segment. Knives' share of Steam turnover rose 0.7 percentage points to 27.2%, while rifles lost 1.1 points to reach 33.5%. More money is flowing into knives even as their prices fall.
−3.6%StickersStickers fell 3.6%, closing at a yearly low of 16.0 points. The segment is down 72.7% over the past year. The week's sharpest drops were also in stickers: Sticker | Alpha Legion 2 fell 58.5% to $1.52, and Sticker | Alpha Legion 1 dropped 52.7% to $1.41. Sales of both were 3 times higher than usual.
−3.1%PistolsPistols lost 3.1%, the second-steepest decline among the segments. Their index stands at 81.5 points, just 1.9% above its yearly low, while rifles are holding 7.3% above theirs.
Huntsman Weapon CaseThe cost to open a Huntsman Weapon Case rose 5.4% to $9.14, while the average value of its drops relative to the opening cost fell 3.5 percentage points to 44.9%. Operation Riptide Case moved in the opposite direction: its opening cost fell 3.0% to $9.23, with a return of 42.9%.

Scenarios for the week

How last week’s scenarios played outNone of the scenarios played out in full. The index fell below 74.7 points to 71.0, but the share of liquid items that declined was 57.7%, below the base scenario's 80%. Knives fell for a 12th straight week, and their index dropped to 47.0 points, below 47.2, but their share of turnover was 27.2%, just under the 27.4% in the risk scenario. Gloves didn't return to growth, ending at 53.1 points.

A slow slideIf the overall index falls for a seventh straight week while the share of declining liquid items stays well below 82.3%, the market will keep sliding without another broad sell-off. To confirm this scenario next week, the index must fall below 71.0 points while the share of declining items remains under 82.3%.
The streak endsIf the overall index closes above 71.0 points during the week of 1win Private Club #2, running October 19–22, and fewer than half of liquid items fall, the narrowing sell-off will turn into a pause. Signs to watch for: the six-week losing streak ends, and the share of rising items exceeds 27.1%.
Stickers drag the market downIf stickers fall more than any other segment again, hit a new yearly low, and the share of declining liquid items returns to 80%, this week's slowdown will prove to be a pause. Signs to watch for: the sticker index falls below 16.0 points and the overall index drops below 71.0.

Scenarios are reasoning based on the week’s data, not financial advice.

The week in numbers

October 12 – 18

Market index71.0−1.8% this weekSteam turnover this week$14.4MOctober 12 – 18Average online802K−2.6% vs last weekPeak online1.36MOctober 17, −3.1%

Indices

over 7 days; tap a segment to add it to the chart

Market price index70.4−11.8%603K sales this week

Review archive

All issues

Week 41October 5 – 11Gloves Lose Their Footing as the Market Has Its Worst Week in 3 MonthsAfter a flat week, Gloves fell 5.6% and hit a yearly low for the first time. The earlier signs of stabilization are gone. The share of declining liquid items jumped from 51.5% to 82.3%, while the overall index lost 6.1%, its worst weekly result in 12 weeks. We’re seeing a broader downturn pick up speed, with the market now down for 5 straight weeks.Index−6.1%Turnover$16.7MCounter-Strike 2 Update Week 40September 28 – October 4The downturn is narrowing: Gloves have stabilized, but recovery hasn't begunGloves ended a nine-week slide and finished the week unchanged. At the same time, the share of liquid items that fell narrowed from 68.5% to 51.5%. We're seeing the first signs of divergence in a falling market: losses are no longer as widespread, but the overall index is still at a yearly low of 80.9 points after four straight down weeks.Index−1.1%Turnover$16.0MCounter-Strike 2 Update Week 39September 21 – 27C4 Sticker Slot Fuels Gains for Individual Stickers as the Market Hits a 1-Year LowThe overall index fell by 3.4% to 80.1 points, its lowest level in a year. This week, Valve enabled stickers on the C4, giving players a new way to use them and driving sharp price gains for some stickers on Steam. But the events of the week do not explain the broader decline.Index−3.4%Turnover$15.7MSupport for Applying Stickers to C4

The issue is put together automatically from marketplace data and market events with the help of AI; the editors review it before publishing. This is not financial advice.