Is Operation Vanguard Weapon Case worth opening?

On average, no: ROI 55.9%, about $0.56 comes back per dollar. Roughly 1 in 12 openings pays off, half of openings are worth less than $1.38.

What is the most expensive drop in Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?

Karambit | Fade: $1,501 on average across wears and StatTrak™, drop chance 1 in 25,000.

What are the drop odds in Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?

Mil-Spec — 79.9%, Restricted — 16.0%, Classified — 3.2%, Covert — 0.64%, Rare Special Item — 0.26%.

How much does it cost to open Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?

Case $3.92 and key $2.49, $6.41 in total.

Tool

Operation Vanguard Weapon Case: ROI and odds

Opening costs $6.41, the average drop is worth $3.58 (ROI 55.9%). Roughly 1 in 12 openings break even, and half of them are cheaper than $1.38.

Case in the Wiki: all items and prices

Opening$6.41case $3.92 and key $2.49Average drop$3.58when sold $3.40ROI55.9%rank 3 of 41Break-even chance8.5%1 in 12Median drop$1.38half of the openings are cheaper

What the average drop is made of

Rarity odds and their share of the average drop value. Click a rarity to see its skins with prices.

Rarity	Chance	Skins	Average drop	Share of the average drop
	79.9%	5	$1.32	29.6%
	16.0%1 in 6	4	$5.90	26.3%
	3.2%1 in 31	3	$11	9.9%
	0.64%1 in 156	2	$77	13.7%
Rare Special Item	0.26%1 in 385	65	$283	20.6%

Most valuable drops

Average price across wears and StatTrak™, and the chance to get this exact skin

KarambitFade

Rare Special Item

$1,501

1 in 25,000

KarambitSlaughter

Rare Special Item

$879

1 in 25,000

KarambitVanilla

Rare Special Item

$863

1 in 25,000

M9 BayonetFade

Rare Special Item

$765

1 in 25,000

KarambitCase Hardened

Rare Special Item

$706

1 in 25,000

KarambitBlue Steel

Rare Special Item

$676

1 in 25,000

M9 BayonetSlaughter

Rare Special Item

$656

1 in 25,000

KarambitCrimson Web

Rare Special Item

$632

1 in 25,000

Cases with similar ROI

Case	Opening	ROI
eSports 2013 Winter Case	$12	64.0%
CS:GO Weapon Case 3	$14	62.4%
Glove Case	$11	55.7%
Operation Hydra Case	$28	51.4%
CS:GO Weapon Case 2	$20	51.1%

All cases

Found a mistake or inaccuracy?

FAQ

How we calculate

Rarity odds are the ones Valve published: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.2%, Covert 0.64%, knife or gloves 0.26%. Skins of the same rarity drop with equal chance. StatTrak™ is every tenth item; gloves never have it.
Wear uses the share of drops across the full Float scale (Factory New 3%, Minimal Wear 24%, Field-Tested 33%, Well-Worn 24%, Battle-Scarred 16%), mapped into the skin’s Float range: a Doppler with a 0–0.08 range almost always drops Factory New.
Steam prices: the case is the weekly sales median, the drop is a cautious price — for rare items no higher than the monthly median and no more than $2000, since Steam does not sell higher. Marketplace prices: the case is the second-lowest price among trusted marketplaces, the drop is the lowest. The $2.49 key is sold only by Valve and cannot be resold.
ROI is the average drop value relative to the opening cost (case and key). When you sell, you get less because of the fee — 13% on Steam, about 5% on marketplaces; the amount after the fee is shown as “when sold”.
Break-even chance is the probability that the drop is worth at least the opening cost. The median drop is the price below which half of the openings land: the average rests on rare knives and gloves, and usually you get far less.
Recalculated every hour on fresh prices. A calculation on average prices does not guarantee a result: in the long run opening cases loses money.