Tool
Chroma Case: ROI and odds
Opening costs $6.66, the average drop is worth $3.00 (ROI 45.0%). Roughly 1 in 21 openings break even, and half of them are cheaper than $0.60.
Case in the Wiki: all items and prices
Opening$6.66case $4.17 and key $2.49Average drop$3.00when sold $2.85ROI45.0%rank 18 of 41Break-even chance4.9%1 in 21Median drop$0.60half of the openings are cheaper
What the average drop is made of
Rarity odds and their share of the average drop value. Click a rarity to see its skins with prices.| Rarity | Chance | Skins | Average drop | Share of the average drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79.9% | 5 | $0.70 | 18.5% | |
| 16.0%1 in 6 | 4 | $2.56 | 13.6% | |
| 3.2%1 in 31 | 3 | $16 | 17.3% | |
| 0.64%1 in 156 | 2 | $101 | 21.5% | |
| Rare Special Item | 0.26%1 in 385 | 30 | $333 | 28.9% |
Most valuable drops
Average price across wears and StatTrak™, and the chance to get this exact skin
Cases with similar ROI
| Case | Opening | ROI |
|---|---|---|
 Horizon Case | $3.86 | 46.2% |
 Operation Broken Fang Case | $7.37 | 45.8% |
 Huntsman Weapon Case | $9.08 | 45.3% |
 Falchion Case | $3.80 | 44.4% |
 Operation Breakout Weapon Case | $9.20 | 44.1% |
 Shattered Web Case | $6.11 | 43.9% |
Found a mistake or inaccuracy?
FAQ
How we calculate
- Rarity odds are the ones Valve published: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.2%, Covert 0.64%, knife or gloves 0.26%. Skins of the same rarity drop with equal chance. StatTrak™ is every tenth item; gloves never have it.
- Wear uses the share of drops across the full Float scale (Factory New 3%, Minimal Wear 24%, Field-Tested 33%, Well-Worn 24%, Battle-Scarred 16%), mapped into the skin’s Float range: a Doppler with a 0–0.08 range almost always drops Factory New.
- Steam prices: the case is the weekly sales median, the drop is a cautious price — for rare items no higher than the monthly median and no more than $2000, since Steam does not sell higher. Marketplace prices: the case is the second-lowest price among trusted marketplaces, the drop is the lowest. The $2.49 key is sold only by Valve and cannot be resold.
- ROI is the average drop value relative to the opening cost (case and key). When you sell, you get less because of the fee — 13% on Steam, about 5% on marketplaces; the amount after the fee is shown as “when sold”.
- Break-even chance is the probability that the drop is worth at least the opening cost. The median drop is the price below which half of the openings land: the average rests on rare knives and gloves, and usually you get far less.
- Recalculated every hour on fresh prices. A calculation on average prices does not guarantee a result: in the long run opening cases loses money.